This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous.

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Society & Culture
151
🇺🇦 The Truth about Russia's War Crimes
As Russia’s war crimes in Bucha are revealed to the world, are there more atrocities yet to be uncovered? And what should the world be doing to help Ukraine? Journalist Romeo Kokriatski dials in to tell Arthur Snell about Putin’s plans for genocide, how the war has changed Ukraine, and why the West needs to do more.
34 min
152
🇺🇦 Where Does China Stand?
China is yet to condemn Putin’s war, and Russia has reportedly asked Beijing for economic and military support. Is Xi proving to Putin’s most important ally? And what does Russia’s faltering invasion mean for China’s potential takeover of Taiwan? Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund, joins Arthur Snell to explain China’s stance on Russia’s invasion, and what war in Europe means for Asian security.
35 min
153
🇺🇦 Could the Conflict go Nuclear?
With Vladimir Putin putting Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert, could the war take an atomic turn? Or is this merely a tactical move from the Kremlin? And what could the Ukraine crisis mean for nuclear policy in the coming years? Dr Laura Considine, politics professor at Leeds University, joins Arthur Snell to explain the history of nuclear proliferation, atomic weapons in the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and the direction of nuclear policy in the coming years.
27 min
154
🇺🇦 The View from Japan
As war rages on Russia’s European front, tensions are also rising in the East with neighbours Japan, as Russian forces conduct military drills on the disputed Northern Territories, claimed by Japan. Japanese Deputy Cabinet Secretary Koichiro Matsumoto joins Arthur Snell to explain the complicated history between Japan and Russia, what Putin’s invasion means for Asian security, and how the Japanese people have rallied around Ukraine.
26 min
155
🇺🇦 How Real is Russia’s Retreat?
It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger? Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next.
35 min
156
🇺🇦 Trouble for the Oiligarchs?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Western nations looking to the Middle East for their oil supplies, but are they obliging? And could the conflict in Europe spark another round of uprisings across the Arab world? Human rights activist and authoritarianism expert Iyad el-Baghdadi joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Putin’s war means for the Middle East.
25 min
157
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Foreign Volunteer Legion
In 2014 Macer Gifford left his job as a city trader to go and fight ISIS in Syria. Now he’s continuing his work as an international volunteer, this time in the Ukraine conflict. In an illuminating conversation, Macer tells Arthur about the parallels between wars in Syria and Ukraine, the role of international volunteers in the conflict, and his plans for a frontline medical unit to support the Ukrainian people.
33 min
158
🇺🇦 Does Finland Need NATO?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Finland questioning its tradition of military non-alignment. Janne Korhonen, university professor and political activist, dials in to tell Arthur how the debate on NATO membership has shifted following Putin’s war.
29 min
159
🇺🇦 India's Deadly Dilemma
India’s tradition of military non-alignment has come under huge strain with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s second most populous country has tried to maintain a neutral stance, but has come under sharp criticism from the West as casualties from the conflict mount. What explains India’s stance, and what does it hope to achieve? Harsh Pant, International relations professor at Kings College London’s India Institute, joins Arthur Snell to discuss.
27 min
160
🇺🇦 Where Russia’s War Went Wrong
Two weeks into Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and things aren’t going to plan. Kyiv is still yet to fall, and Russian troops have failed to make substantial progress against fierce Ukrainian resistance. Defence analyst and military historian Dr Peter Caddick-Adams joins Arthur Snell to pinpoint where Russia’s shameful war went wrong… and what could happen next.
35 min
161
🇺🇦 Putin’s Disastrous Miscalculation
Is Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine just Putin’s monstrous folly? Or does the Russian military have even bigger problems? Arthur Snell hears from KCL Lecturer for German and European Studies Alexander Clarkson about how a flawed image of Ukraine as a failed state sowed the seeds of Russia’s embarrassment. And how, when Putin invaded Crimea in 2014, he inadvertently began training a generation of fighters who do not know how to give up.
35 min
162
🇺🇦 How Far Can NATO Go?
The bogeyman of NATO expansion was Putin’s pretext to invade Ukraine. Can NATO act now to stop Russia’s war – or would that trigger nuclear conflict? Is a No-Fly Zone practical? Former NATO representative in Moscow and now Chatham House associate fellow John Lough tells Arthur Snell about the latest state of play with NATO and the long-term implications of the most dangerous security crisis in Europe since 1945.
33 min
163
🇺🇦 “High treason”: Belarus’s Tyrant Stands By P...
Putin has few friends – but one is Belarusian despot Alexander Lukashenko. Belarusian democracy activist and reporter Hanna Liubakova talks to Arthur Snell from exile in Lithuania, to explain how Lukashenko dragged her country into the war – and what the world can expect from Putin’s stooge. What price will Belarus pay for Lukashenko’s fealty?
20 min
164
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Courage Stuns the World
Kyiv is under siege but Putin’s invasion is going badly. How far will Russia’s ruler go to win his monstrous gamble? And what can the West do to stop him? In the first of our irregular Ukraine War bulletins we talk to Ukrainian journalists Artyom Liss and Kyiv-based Romeo Kokriatski about the balance of power in Ukraine, the resolve of President Zelensky, and Putin’s doomsday psychology.
34 min
165
Emergency Edition: The Ukraine Crisis
As tensions rise on the Ukrainian border, are we looking at the first ground war in Europe since 1945? In an emergency roundtable edition of Doomsday Watch, Arthur Snell asks a panel of experts what’s driving Putin’s thinking, how far he and Russia are willing to go to achieve their aims, and if a disastrous conflict can be averted.
47 min
166
Season Finale: Where Do We Go From Here?
In this series we’ve looked at under-reported threats to global stability, from the psychology of Xi Jinping to the coming water crisis to the War on Truth. But what happens next? In this extended end-of-season edition, Arthur Snell steps back to look at the big picture with experts in geopolitics, future warfare and the Chinese, Russian and American superpowers. Can the world pull itself from the brink – or is our Long Peace coming to an end?
79 min
167
The War On Truth
The Cold Warriors of the postwar world never dreamed that Western democracies would become to rely on a global information network – and that our very openness could be turned against us. As the stories of Brexit, COVID and Trump coalesce into one nightmare tale of disinformation and weaponised lying, Arthur Snell asks whether democracy can survive in a post-truth world. If you control the information space, do you control the future? And after the pandemic, can we withstand the infodemic?
51 min
168
The War in Your Living Room
The digital Utopia we were promised has given us a desperately vulnerable world where we depend on a global internet with a billion badly-protected backdoors. Today’s cyber-war battlegrounds aren’t on bank servers or Government databases. They’re in your smart fridges, doorbells and security cameras. Arthur Snell traces a path from the first-ever co-ordinated cyber-attack (on Estonia in 2007) to a world of invisible weapons and relentless probing conflict – where hostile governments can target your own phone anywhere on earth. How do you defend democratic societies when everything has become a computer?
53 min
169
McJihad - How Terror Became a Global Franchise
What could persuade someone to leave a comparatively wealthy country in the Western Hemisphere to fight and die in the hellhole of the Islamic State? That’s exactly what happened in the unlikely setting of Trinidad and Tobago. Arthur Snell pieces together an astonishing story of how radicalisation is continuing in unexpected places around the world – how jihad leaders learned from the experts in global expansion, the fast food giants – and how jihad has found its mirror in QAnon. How do we fight terror when global jihad has gone local?
51 min
170
Why Can’t The West Win Its Wars Any More?
After 9/11 the West invaded Afghanistan and Iraq to remake them as friendly, terror-free liberal democracies. But the unintended consequences were historic disaster, countless dead and the humbling of Western power, symbolised by the shameful evacuation of Kabul in 2021. How did we get it so catastrophically wrong?
63 min
171
Hydropocalypse Now
An Indian megacity of 11 million people literally runs out of water, trucking in 10m litres a day to hydrate a panicking population amid water queues and panic-buying. In Bolivia a scandalous water privatisation leaves people paying a quarter of their earnings just to drink
40 min
172
Twilight Of The Oiligarchs – The end of petroch...
What happens to the Middle East when the world stops buying its oil? As the world races to decarbonise, the region’s petrochemical plutocrats face a terrible decision. To keep power, they must cut off their addiction to oil. The plans of one young Saudi prince – the ambitious, ruthless Mohammed bin Salman – are already unleashing a wave of arrests, intimidation, black ops and murder across the world.
54 min
173
What Putin Wants
Russia’s newly-belligerent stance has rocked the democratic West on its heels, from the annexation of the Crimea to the sponsoring of extremist digital disinformation to – almost certainly – the stacking of elections in the US and UK. And it all stems from the paranoid, Machiavellian, espionage-steeped mindset of one man: Vladimir Putin.
57 min
174
World War Xi
Who is Xi Jinping? What are the forces that shaped China’s paramount leader? Will his psychological make-up, and his belief that his country has been robbed of its rightful place, lead inexorably to confrontation with the West?
52 min
175
America’s Next Civil War?
Is a toxic combination of extreme partisanship, detached elites and Trump’s incitement driving the world’s greatest democracy to a second Civil War?
53 min