This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
Exploring threats to global stability from Ukraine to China to the Middle East with host Gavin Esler – former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight – plus Ukraine-based war reporter Oz Katerji and independent conflict analyst Emma Beals. This Is Not A Drill dives deep into the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever more dangerous.
Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon from just £3 per month to get each episode early plus bonus material and exclusive merchandise. From Podmasters, the team behind Oh God, What Now?, Paper Cuts and The Bunker.
101
🇺🇦 War Update: Shashank Joshi
Nearly four months into the Ukraine-Russia war, where is the conflict at? After limited early progress, is Russia now beginning to gain ground, or are both sides grinding to a halt? And in the longer term, can the West sustain both the supply of arms to Ukraine, and it's unity? Defence Editor for the Economist Shashank Joshi joins Arthur Snell for an update on where the war is heading.
30 min
102
🇺🇦 Mind Control — Why Millions Think Russia is ...
Those in the West would be forgiven for thinking Ukraine is winning the information war, with slick videos of President Zelenskyy appearing all over social media. However for those in the Global South, the content they consume about the war is much more pro-Russia. To explain this phenomenon and the wider context, Carl Miller, Research Director at the Demos Centre for the Analysis of Social Media, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin.
32 min
103
🇺🇦 Turkey — NATO’s Disruptive Ally
Of all the countries playing a part in the Ukraine crisis, Turkey is perhaps the most difficult to read. A NATO member and supplying drones to Ukraine, but at the same time thwarting Sweden and Finland’s attempts to join the alliance, and hosting Russia's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov later this week. To discuss what Turkey and its president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are trying to achieve, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, dials in from Istanbul to speak to Arthur Snell.
26 min
104
🇺🇦 Europe’s Energy Conflict
At the heart of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the wider crisis affecting Europe, is the question of energy security. How did the West become so reliant on Russian oil and gas? And as the continent moves away from the Kremlin's energy supply, what will the impact be? Helen Thompson, professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge and author of Disorder, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the geopolitical fallout from Putin's invasion.
26 min
105
🇺🇦 NATO – An Alliance Revived?
As Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO, ending decades of military neutrality, how has Putin's invasion revived an alliance described as 'Braindead' by Emmanuel Macron just two years ago? Lord Peter Ricketts, a former Permanent Representative to NATO, ex-ambassador to France and Britain's first National Security Advisor, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the implications of war in Ukraine for Western security, and the potential paths for ending the conflict.
32 min
106
🇺🇦 Inside Russia’s Eastern Offensive
It's been three months since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Putin now focusing on the east of the country after his failure to take Kyiv, where is the war currently? Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, comes back on the show to tell Arthur Snell about the brutal battle for the Donbas, and where the conflict could head next.
31 min
107
🇺🇦 How Russia's Money Corrupts the West
Russian dark money has infiltrated Western politics for years, leading to increased support for the Kremlin and their actions in capitals across the developed world. To discuss the how and why behind Russia's financial meddling, Iain Campbell, financial investigator and journalist, joins Arthur Snell for another War Bulletin.
26 min
108
🇺🇦 Russia’s State of Mind
The Russian state is working incredibly hard to persuade its people that the war is both necessary and going well, but what state of mind is Russia's population in? Sarah Hurst, author of the Russia Report newsletter, talks to Arthur Snell about the Kremlin's campaign of disinformation, and how international sanctions are hitting the Russian population.
28 min
109
🇺🇦 Inside the Warrior Mindset
How important are motivations when it comes to fighting a war? Is a 'warrior mindset', rather than high level training, carrying the Ukrainian military through? Fresh from a reporting trip to Kyiv, former U.S. Marine Elliot Ackerman joins Arthur Snell to give an insight into the mentality of both the Russian and Ukrainian forces, and explain how Putin united the Western world.
32 min
110
🇺🇦 Germany’s Dereliction of Duty
Russia's invasion of Ukraine lead to a seismic u-turn in Germany, as Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a huge increase in military spending. What are the implications for Europe? And as other European nations reduce their need for Russian energy, why has Berlin has been reluctant to follow suit? Annette Dittert, London Bureau Chief for German broadcaster ARD, joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Germany's military u-turn means for Europe, and why Scholz is having difficulty stamping out Russian oil and gas.
30 min
111
🇺🇦 Live Zoom with Dr Alex Clarkson
Last week we held a live Zoom session with Dr Alexander Clarkson of King's College London, who took us on a whirlwind world tour of Ukraine, Transnistria and the future of Russia’s catastrophic invasion. How is it developing and how could it end? Out now on general release, here is a shortened version of the session.
31 min
112
🇺🇦 The Battle for the Black Sea
The sinking of the Russian warship Moskva highlighted the importance of naval conflict in the Russia-Ukraine war. Why is the Black Sea so vital? And is Ukraine up to the task of stopping Putin's fleet of frigates? Former Royal Navy Captain Chris Clough joins Arthur Snell to discuss the intricacies of naval warfare, what the Moskva sinking means for the conflict, and how real the risk of escalation is as the war moves forward.
31 min
113
🇺🇦 Putin’s High Stakes Game
Putin’s undeserved reputation as a master strategist means some analysts have employed the metaphor of chess to his invasion of Ukraine, but is the Russian President actually playing poker with the West? Jason Pack, non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute and 2018 World Champion in doubles backgammon, talks to Arthur Snell about the high stakes game between NATO and Russia, and why the Kremlin might have overplayed their hand.
28 min
114
🇺🇦 Surviving Putin's Wrath with Bill Browder
Anyone familiar with Putin's history of kleptocracy, money laundering and threats of murder against his enemies will know the name of Bill Browder, formerly one of Russia's leading foreign investors, now a sworn enemy of Vladimir Putin. Browder talks to Arthur Snell about his new book Freezing Order, which details the 'real money' funding the Kremlin's war, and how he became Vladimir Putin’s number one enemy for exposing his campaign of theft and money laundering.
28 min
115
🇺🇦 What Russia’s Invasion Means For France
With the second round of France's presidential election on Sunday, what could the vote for the French response to the Ukraine crisis? And when other leaders have stopped, why has President Macron has continued diplomatic efforts with Vladimir Putin? Stephanie Pezard, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, joins Arthur Snell to discuss France's approach to Russia's war, and what the conflict means for European defence and security.
29 min
116
🇺🇦 Could Chemical Warfare Occur?
With Russia's invasion of Ukraine faltering, could the Kremlin consider escalating the conflict using chemical weapons? What would biological warfare look like? Dr Alastair Hay, a Professor of Environmental Toxicology at the University of Leeds, joins Arthur Snell to discuss the history of chemical weapons, and if we'll see them used in the Ukraine conflict.
26 min
117
🇺🇦 The Truth about Russia's War Crimes
As Russia’s war crimes in Bucha are revealed to the world, are there more atrocities yet to be uncovered? And what should the world be doing to help Ukraine? Journalist Romeo Kokriatski dials in to tell Arthur Snell about Putin’s plans for genocide, how the war has changed Ukraine, and why the West needs to do more.
34 min
118
🇺🇦 Where Does China Stand?
China is yet to condemn Putin’s war, and Russia has reportedly asked Beijing for economic and military support. Is Xi proving to Putin’s most important ally? And what does Russia’s faltering invasion mean for China’s potential takeover of Taiwan? Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Programme at the German Marshall Fund, joins Arthur Snell to explain China’s stance on Russia’s invasion, and what war in Europe means for Asian security.
35 min
119
🇺🇦 Could the Conflict go Nuclear?
With Vladimir Putin putting Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert, could the war take an atomic turn? Or is this merely a tactical move from the Kremlin? And what could the Ukraine crisis mean for nuclear policy in the coming years? Dr Laura Considine, politics professor at Leeds University, joins Arthur Snell to explain the history of nuclear proliferation, atomic weapons in the context of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and the direction of nuclear policy in the coming years.
27 min
120
🇺🇦 The View from Japan
As war rages on Russia’s European front, tensions are also rising in the East with neighbours Japan, as Russian forces conduct military drills on the disputed Northern Territories, claimed by Japan. Japanese Deputy Cabinet Secretary Koichiro Matsumoto joins Arthur Snell to explain the complicated history between Japan and Russia, what Putin’s invasion means for Asian security, and how the Japanese people have rallied around Ukraine.
26 min
121
🇺🇦 How Real is Russia’s Retreat?
It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger? Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next.
35 min
122
🇺🇦 Trouble for the Oiligarchs?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Western nations looking to the Middle East for their oil supplies, but are they obliging? And could the conflict in Europe spark another round of uprisings across the Arab world? Human rights activist and authoritarianism expert Iyad el-Baghdadi joins Arthur Snell to discuss what Putin’s war means for the Middle East.
25 min
123
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Foreign Volunteer Legion
In 2014 Macer Gifford left his job as a city trader to go and fight ISIS in Syria. Now he’s continuing his work as an international volunteer, this time in the Ukraine conflict. In an illuminating conversation, Macer tells Arthur about the parallels between wars in Syria and Ukraine, the role of international volunteers in the conflict, and his plans for a frontline medical unit to support the Ukrainian people.
33 min
124
🇺🇦 Does Finland Need NATO?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has Finland questioning its tradition of military non-alignment. Janne Korhonen, university professor and political activist, dials in to tell Arthur how the debate on NATO membership has shifted following Putin’s war.
29 min
125
🇺🇦 India's Deadly Dilemma
India’s tradition of military non-alignment has come under huge strain with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The world’s second most populous country has tried to maintain a neutral stance, but has come under sharp criticism from the West as casualties from the conflict mount. What explains India’s stance, and what does it hope to achieve? Harsh Pant, International relations professor at Kings College London’s India Institute, joins Arthur Snell to discuss.
27 min